LIVEHERE REAL ESTATE

In a university town, the math quietly shifts every September: four years of a student's rent starts to look a lot like someone else's mortgage payment. The appeal is straightforward — but turning it into a sound purchase depends far more on how the financing is structured than on the property itself. For investors, meanwhile, the math on buy-and-hold rentals is edging back toward the point where the numbers simply work. 

Could your mortgage be your most underused investment tool?

The Guelph-area market has entered its familiar summer slowdown, with fewer listings and a softer pace since the spring season wound down in mid-June. That lull is quietly creating openings, particularly on properties left unsold from the busier spring months. And with prices easing in some segments, certain rental properties are beginning to cash flow again — a shift the market has not seen in several years. Why does the market slow down in summer? Seasonality is doing exactly what it usually does. The spring market, the year's busiest stretch, tapered off around the middle of June, and the weeks since have followed a predictable pattern. School lets out, families shift into cottage-and-vacation mode, and fewer owners are willing to keep a home show-ready or give up a summer weekend to host open houses. The result is thinner inventory and a slower overall pace of transactions. A quieter market, though, is not a stalled one. Deals are still being written — in one early-August stretch the LIVEHERE team assembled three of them in a single evening — and the change in tempo tends to reward buyers who stay engaged while others step back. The slowdown is a seasonal feature of the market, not a sign of underlying weakness.

Quick Facts: Canada’s economy contracted 0.1% annualized in Q1 2026 after a downwardly revised 1.0% decline in Q4 2025, marking two consecutive quarters of contraction and a technical recession for the first time since 2020. The result badly missed the consensus forecast of 1.5% annualized growth, with business capital investment falling for the fifth straight quarter and residential investment dropping 2.0% as resale activity plunged 9.9%. Markets are pricing a 98% chance the Bank of Canada holds at 2.25% on June 10, with a 2% chance of a hike and zero probability of a cut, despite the recession data. A flash estimate for April suggests 0.4% monthly GDP growth, but the Bank of Canada faces the same dilemma: the domestic economy needs rate cuts while oil-driven inflation makes easing risky. Statistics Canada reported this morning that the economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.1 percent in the first quarter of 2026, following a downwardly revised 1.0 percent decline in the fourth quarter of 2025. That makes two consecutive quarters of contraction, putting Canada in a technical recession for the first time since the start of the pandemic. Before that, the last occurrence was during the oil shock of 2015. That result was far worse than expected. Economists polled by Reuters and the Bank of Canada itself had forecast annualized growth of 1.5 percent, meaning the actual outcome missed by roughly 1.6 percentage points. Yet markets are still pricing a 98 percent chance the Bank holds at 2.25 percent on June 10, with just a 2 percent chance of a hike and zero probability of a cut. What the Numbers Actually Show On a quarterly basis, real GDP was flat in the first quarter, which means the annualized contraction of 0.1 percent was driven by rounding and seasonal adjustment rather than a sharp downturn in a single month. However, the composition of the quarter tells a weaker story than the headline suggests. Business capital investment fell 0.7 percent, marking the fifth consecutive quarterly decline. Residential investment dropped 2.0 percent, with resale housing activity plunging 9.9 percent in the first quarter alone. Government capital investment fell 2.5 percent as weapons spending slowed from the elevated levels at the end of 2025. Imports surged 2.9 percent, driven largely by gold, while exports edged down 0.1 percent as passenger car and light truck shipments declined under the weight of U.S. tariffs. Household spending was the one bright spot, rising 0.4 percent on financial services and food. But even that came at a cost: the household saving rate fell to 3.5 percent, its lowest level in two years. Why This Recession Feels Different What makes this technical recession unusual is that corporate incomes are actually rising. Corporate profits grew 1.6 percent in the first quarter, the third consecutive quarterly increase, driven almost entirely by the energy sector as global oil prices surged. The GDP deflator rose 1.1 percent, with export prices up 3.4 percent on the back of higher crude. That creates a split economy. The energy side of Canada is generating strong profits from elevated oil prices, while the consumer and investment sides are weakening under the combined weight of tariffs, high borrowing costs, and declining housing activity. For the Bank of Canada, this is the worst kind of recession to manage because the standard remedy of cutting rates risks making the oil-driven inflation problem worse. On a per capita basis, real GDP actually rose 0.2 percent in the first quarter because the population declined for a second consecutive quarter. That statistical quirk does not change the underlying picture, but it does mean the recession is being shaped by falling demand and reduced immigration as much as by any single economic shock. What This Means for Canadian Mortgage Rates Variable rates are tied to the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate through prime, and this morning’s data strengthens the case for cuts. The Bank has held at 2.25 percent for four consecutive decisions, but two quarters of contraction put pressure on that hold. A result that missed the Bank’s own forecast by 1.6 percentage points makes patience harder to justify. However, the same constraint that has kept the Bank on hold for months still applies. Oil prices remain elevated, the GDP deflator is rising, and Governor Macklem warned last month that consecutive rate increases are possible if energy costs bleed into broader inflation. A technical recession makes that threat harder to deliver, but it does not eliminate it. Fixed rates follow GoC bond yields, and if the recession data continues to point toward weakness, those yields should drift lower, which would eventually pull fixed rates down. But U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated because the American economy is still growing, and that puts a floor under Canadian bond yields. Until the Bank actually moves, fixed-rate pricing is unlikely to shift significantly in either direction. What Could Change the Picture The flash estimate for April GDP came in at 0.4 percent monthly growth, driven by a rebound in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction. If that number holds and May follows a similar path, the technical recession could look like a one-quarter stumble rather than the start of a prolonged downturn. In that case, the Bank would have less reason to cut, and rates would likely stay where they are. The opposite risk is that the USMCA review beginning July 1 triggers new trade barriers, or that oil prices climb further on an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Either scenario would deepen the downturn while adding to inflation, forcing the Bank into the position of choosing between supporting growth and fighting prices. Bottom Line Canada is in a technical recession for the first time since the pandemic, and the economy missed the Bank of Canada’s own forecast by a wide margin. That should put pressure on the Bank to cut rates, but markets are pricing a 98 percent chance of a hold on June 10 because oil-driven inflation has not gone away. But the oil shock has not gone away, and the Bank cannot cut into rising inflation without risking its credibility. For mortgage holders, the most likely near-term outcome is that rates stay where they are while the Bank waits for clearer data. If the April rebound holds and oil prices ease, cuts become possible later this summer, and that is the scenario where both variable and fixed rates come down.

What Maintenance Does an Investment Property Actually Need? Owning a rental property doesn’t have to mean constant headaches, but it does require consistency.

The Bank of Canada Maintains Its Interest Rate Policy to Close Out April April 29, 2026 Despite rising oil prices and global trade friction, the Bank of Canada has once again chosen to keep its overnight policy interest rate at 2.25%. This decision is good news for those who feared the Bank would raise rates to combat recent oil-price-driven inflation, but it does lead to speculation about what comes next — and when. To understand the Bank's thinking, here is a summary of its April 29, 2026 observations and outlook. Canadian Economic Performance and Outlook After contracting in the fourth quarter of 2025, growth is forecast to have resumed in early 2026. Consumer and government spending are supporting economic activity, while tariffs and trade uncertainty are weighing on exports and business investment. The Bank's April forecast projects GDP growth of 1.2% in 2026, rising to 1.6% in 2027 and 1.7% in 2028, as growth in exports and business investment resumes along "a lower trajectory." The outlook for economic growth in Canada is little changed from the Bank's January Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projection. Inflation Global inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), climbed to 2.4% in March due to sharply higher gasoline prices. The March increase follows several months of slowing inflation data. Core inflation has been easing and held steady at just above 2% in the most recent inflation report. The proportion of components that make up the "CPI basket" has also declined in recent months. Canadian Housing and Employment Housing activity declined in the fourth quarter and is being held back by slow population growth, economic uncertainty, and ongoing affordability issues. The labour market is soft, with subdued employment growth over the past year and job losses in sectors targeted by US tariffs. The unemployment rate remains in the 6.5% to 7% range, reflecting both weak hiring and fewer job seekers. Global Economic Commentary In the United States, growth is still expected to be solid over the Bank's projection horizon, boosted by AI-related investment and consumption growth. China's economy is being supported by robust exports. In the euro area, higher prices for oil and natural gas will weigh on economic activity. Overall, the global economy is expected to grow by about 3% in 2026, 2027, and 2028. The Bank's projections for inflation over the next year have been revised up because of the jump in energy prices. Financial Conditions and Bond Yields Financial conditions have been volatile, reflecting daily developments in the Middle East and shifting market expectations for inflation and interest rates. Bond yields are modestly higher since January, while equity markets — which weakened sharply at the outset of the war — have recovered. Since the start of the war, the US dollar has appreciated against most major currencies. The Canada-US exchange rate has been relatively stable. War in the Middle East and Shifting Trade Patterns The Bank again made special mention of the evolving conflict in the Middle East, saying it is "causing heightened volatility." It further added that the Iran war has led to sharply higher energy prices and transportation disruptions, "diminishing growth prospects in oil-importing countries and boosting inflation worldwide." It also noted that US trade policy continues to reshape global trade patterns. Both trade policy and the conflict in the Middle East are "ongoing sources of uncertainty." The Bank's April outlook assumes tariffs remain unchanged and the global benchmark price of oil declines to US$75 per barrel by mid-2027.  Rationale for Today's Decision and Outlook In commenting on its decision to hold its policy rate steady, the BoC made several key points: With GDP growing slightly above potential, the current excess supply in the economy will be gradually absorbed. While the war in Iran may alter its composition, overall GDP growth is little changed in the updated forecast. Since Canada is a large net exporter of oil, higher oil prices increase national income even as consumers are squeezed by higher gasoline prices. As expected, so far there is "little evidence" that oil prices have fed through more broadly to goods and services prices — but this warrants close attention in the months ahead. Near-term inflation expectations have moved up with higher gasoline prices and still-elevated food price inflation, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained "anchored." CPI inflation will likely rise further in April to about 3%. Based on the assumption that oil prices will ease, inflation is forecast to come down to the 2% target early next year and remain around 2% over the projection horizon. The Bank offered that "against this backdrop," and taking into account its current projection, it decided to maintain its policy rate at 2.25%. The Bank further stated: "We are closely monitoring the impact of the conflict in the Middle East and how the economy is responding to US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. The Bank's Governing Council is 'looking through' the war's immediate impact on inflation but will not let higher energy prices become persistent inflation. As the outlook evolves, we stand ready to respond as needed." Next Up The Bank is scheduled to make its next policy interest rate announcement on June 10th. First National's executive summary will follow. In the meantime, please visit the Resources page of this website for other important insights.

This morning, Canada’s GDP rose just 0.1% in January, beating the consensus forecast of zero growth but pointing to a fragile economy heading into the Iran oil shock.

Every so often, something happens in the mortgage world that reinforces an important truth: your mortgage experience depends enormously on the expertise of the person guiding you. A young couple we had pre-approved earlier this year recently had an experience that highlighted this in a very real way. Their story isn’t stressful or dramatic — it’s simply a helpful reminder of why choosing the right support can make your home-buying journey smoother.

Here's a breakdown of Canada’s first time home buyer (FTHB) programs To start, each program defines a first time home buyer in a different way, which can make things confusing to some clients. Here are the three major programs Canadians most often utilize: The Ontario Land Transfer Tax Rebate; The RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP); The First Home Savings Account (FHSA). Ontario land transfer tax rebate If you’re buying property in Ontario, the land transfer tax (LTT) rebate is available. It can save you up to $4,000 on the provincial land transfer tax, plus up to another $4,475 on the Toronto municipal land transfer tax if you’re buying in Toronto. The LTT rebate has strict guidelines in order to qualify: -You must be at least 18 years old -You must have never owned a home or any interest in a home anywhere in the world -You must live in the home as your principal residence within nine months of the purchase -Your spouse or common-law partner must also never have owned a home while you’ve been together -residency restrictions also apply RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan The HBP allows qualified FTHB to use up to $60K in RRSP savings to help with a down payment. To qualify: -You must not have lived in a home that you (or your spouse/common-law partner) owned in the current year or the four preceding calendar years -You need a signed agreement to buy or build a qualifying home -You must intend to make that home your principal residence within one year -You must be a resident of Canada at the time of the withdrawal and when you buy the home First Home Savings Account To open and use an FHSA: -You must be between 18 and 71 years old and a Canadian resident -You must not have owned or jointly owned, or lived in, a qualifying home in the calendar year before you open the FHSA or during the previous four calendar years. *This rule also considers property owned by your spouse or common-law partner that you lived in Does being a first-time buyer impact your mortgage? For a High Ratio/ Insured mortgage, being a FTHB can provide additional options: -Previous home owner buyers are eligible for a 30-year amortization with mortgage insurance only when purchasing newly built homes. -First-time homebuyers are eligible regardless of whether they are buying a new or resale home. Educating first time home buyers is our job. Supporting your home ownership journey from beginning to end is our purpose. We don't just help you buy it - we help you own it. Reach out to see what we can do for you!